James Lindsay has been doing some great blogging on how to apply Bayesian reasoning to model John Loftus’ Outsider Test for Faith (or OTF). A while ago I asked for recommendations of bloggers that often write about Bayes’ Theorem for a general audience (see Bayesian Blogging), and a few came up there. This is another.
Formulating and extensively defending the OTF is Loftus’ greatest contribution to the philosophy of religion and atheism. His best and most thorough treatment appears as chapter four in The Christian Delusion (a book I always recommend anyway as it contains lots of great chapters by great authors; and two by me). He is writing a whole book on it now. It should be out this year (I’ve seen advanced drafts and it’s good; I’ll blog it when you can buy it). The OTF is featured at Iron Chariots (which provides examples of looser expressions of the concept throughout history) and Loftus discusses it often at Debunking Christianity.
The basic idea is that you can only have a rational faith if you test it by the same standards you apply to all other competing faiths; yet when you do that, your religion tests as false as the others, and the same reasons you use to reject those become equally valid reasons to reject yours. Though this idea has been voiced before, Loftus is the first to name it, rigorize it, and give it an extensive philosophical defense; moreover, by doing so, he is the first to cause a concerted apologetic to arise attempting to dodge it, to which he could then respond. The end result is one of the most effective and powerful arguments for atheism there is. It is, in effect, a covering argument that subsumes all other arguments for atheism into a common framework.
Lindsay, meanwhile, is an expert mathematician and author of God Doesn’t; We Do: Only Humans Can Solve Human Challenges (2012). His blog of the same title treats a number of issues in support of that book and its argument. I don’t always agree with him. But his blogging on Bayes’ Theorem is great. He started by talking about how Loftus’ OTF can be formulated using Bayes’ Theorem, to show why it can’t be dodged the way Christian apologists want. This led to further blogging on the subject, including a Bayesian analysis of “faith” in general. It’s worth checking out.
The first of these (on which the others build) is:
Here much of his argument is backed formally by my Bayesian models in The End of Christianity (edited by Loftus) for Christianity as a religion (chapter two) and for the design argument generally (chapter twelve); where most of the math is in the endnotes but the Bayesian logic is made explicit in each. These chapters especially explain why the evidence has a much higher consequent probability (a higher “likelihood” in sci-speak) on naturalism than on any kind of theism (much less Christian theism).
Combine those with Lindsay’s post and you should get a clear understanding why atheism is true and Bayesian reasoning proves it. Lindsay’s treatment will be especially helpful in understanding how atheists think like Bayesians all the time even when they don’t know it (and how Christians, in contrast, are really awful Bayesians). I give other examples of Bayesian atheism near the end of my talk Bayes’ Theorem: Lust for Glory (which is still my best intro to BT for beginners), which can supplement all this.
Lindsay continued blogging under the tag “Math” and what’s there so far is all Bayes’ Theorem stuff. Maybe that won’t always be the case, but keeping tabs on that tagged subject going forward might lead you to more gems about Bayesian reasoning. So far there are three other posts:
- A Bit More Clarity on Bayes’s Theorem and Loftus’s Outsider Test for Faith (which shows how a BT-formulated OTF forces believers to confront facts that plain descriptions of the OTF might not; in short, it’s the probability of the evidence, and not just the prior probability, that’s the problem, although the OTF shows both are a problem for any honest believer)
- Continuing My Bayesian Argument–The Role of Evidence (where he defends the OTF against accusations that it would lead to weird conclusions in other domains, which a BT analysis shows is actually not true; although he incorrectly applies the term a priori here: the prior probability in the OTF is not a priori, but based on background evidence regarding the number of observed religious faiths; a priori knowledge is by definition not based on any such evidence, and in particular neither are a priori probabilities; for an actual example of the latter, see my note 8, pp. 406-07, in TEC)
- Defining Faith via Bayesian Reasoning (which builds a Bayesian definition of faith, when faith is used in any sense other than as a synonym of belief; this also provides an example of how many of Loftus’ rebuttals of critics of the OTF can be framed in Bayesian terms to show why he is right and they are not)
Good stuff so far. So I’m adding this to my list of Bayesian bloggers worth keeping an eye on. Another to add is Jeff Lowder.