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The Predictive Power Of Game Theory September 29, 2009 at 2:07 pm  Daniel Fincke In this clip from The Daily Show, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita discusses predicting world affairs using models based on game theory to an extraordinarily high degree of accuracy (twice that of the CIA by their own estimation). It’s really exciting stuff:
His book is called on The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future and sounds must-read to me. Your Thoughts?  Posted in Hilarious, Moral Psychology, Philosophy, Psychology, Social Psychology, Social Sciences, Videos, World Affairs  Tags: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Decision Theory, Game Theory, Jon Stewart, The Daily Show, The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the FutureNo Responses to “The Predictive Power Of Game Theory”Leave a ReplyAllowed Tags <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>
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I only half paid attention. Most people don’t use logic, so you can’t count on logic, even the logic of self-interest or greed. I’m not saying you can’t see where things are likely to go–you should try that exercise, but counting on the result is like betting on playoff games based on what Mike Francesca or Chris Russo think. Even if their argument comes across as sound, it doesn’t take into account the wild randomness and illogic of reality.