Ashley’s 2014 Oscar’s Predictions

oscars_leadAs you may or may not know, I get screeners every year, so I usually see most of the nominated movies.  Here are my predictions and opinions on the categories for this year (except the shorts).

EDIT: I missed 3 out of 21, most disappointingly, The Act of Killing did not win Documentary Feature.

 

BEST PICTURE

“American Hustle”

“Captain Phillips”

“Dallas Buyers Club”

“Gravity”

“Her”

“Nebraska”

“Philomena”

“12 Years a Slave”

“The Wolf of Wall Street”

 

WILL WIN: “12 Years a Slave”

SHOULD WIN: “Gravity”

 

DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”

Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”

Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”

David O. Russell, “American Hustle”

Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

 

WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”

SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”

 

ACTOR

Christian Bale, “American Hustle”

Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”

Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”

Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

 

WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

SHOULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

 

ACTRESS

Amy Adams, “American Hustle”

Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”

Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”

Judi Dench, “Philomena”

Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”

 

WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”

SHOULD WIN: I have no feelings on this matter

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”

Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”

Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”

Jonah Hill, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

 

WILL WIN: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

SHOULD WIN: I have no feelings on this matter

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”

Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”

Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”

Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”

June Squibb, “Nebraska”

 

WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”

SHOULD WIN: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”

 

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“Before Midnight,” Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke

“Captain Phillips,” Billy Ray

“Philomena,” Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

“12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley

“The Wolf of Wall Street,” Terence Winter

 

WILL WIN: ”12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley

SHOULD WIN: ”12 Years a Slave,” John Ridley

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“American Hustle,” Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

“Blue Jasmine,” Woody Allen

“Dallas Buyers Club,” Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

“Her,” Spike Jonze

“Nebraska,” Bob Nelson

 

WILL WIN: American Hustle,” Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

SHOULD WIN: “American Hustle,” Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“The Act of Killing”

“Cutie and the Boxer”

“Dirty Wars”

“The Square”

“20 Feet From Stardom”

 

WILL WIN: “The Act of Killing”

SHOULD WIN: “The Act of Killing”

 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“The Broken Circle Breakdown”

“The Great Beauty”

“The Hunt”

“The Missing Picture”

“Omar”

 

WILL WIN: “The Great Beauty”

SHOULD WIN: I have no feelings on this matter

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

“The Grandmaster,” Philippe Le Sourd

“Gravity,” Emmanuel Lubezki

“Inside Llewyn Davis,” Bruno Delbonnel

“Nebraska,” Phedon Papamichael

“Prisoners,” Roger A. Deakins

 

WILL WIN: “Gravity,” Emmanuel Lubezki

SHOULD WIN: “Gravity,” Emmanuel Lubezki

 

COSTUME DESIGN

“American Hustle,” Michael Wilkinson

“The Grandmaster,” William Chang Suk Ping

“The Great Gatsby,” Catherine Martin

“The Invisible Woman,” Michael O’Connor

“12 Years a Slave,” Patricia Norris

 

WILL WIN: “12 Years a Slave,” Patricia Norris

SHOULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave,” Patricia Norris

 

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

“The Croods”

“Despicable Me 2”

“Ernest & Celestine”

“Frozen”

“The Wind Rises”

 

WILL WIN: “Frozen”

SHOULD WIN: “Frozen”

 

EDITING

“American Hustle,” Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten

“Captain Phillips,” Christopher Rouse

“Dallas Buyers Club,” John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

“Gravity,” Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger

“12 Years a Slave,” Joe Walker

 

WILL WIN: “Gravity,” Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger

SHOULD WIN: “Gravity,” Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger

 

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

“Dallas Buyers Club,” Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

“Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa,” Stephen Prouty

“The Lone Ranger,” Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

 

WILL WIN: “Dallas Buyers Club,” Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

SHOULD WIN: “Dallas Buyers Club,” Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

 

ORIGINAL SONG

“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2” music and lyrics by Pharrell Williams

“Let It Go” from “Frozen,” music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez

“The Moon Song” from “Her,” music by Karen O; lyrics by Karen O and Spike Jonze

“Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom,” music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen, lyrics by Paul Hewson

 

WILL WIN: “Let It Go” from “Frozen,” music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez

SHOULD WIN: “Let It Go” from “Frozen,” music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez

 

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

“The Book Thief,” John Williams

“Gravity,” Stephen Price

“Her,” William Butler and Owen Pallett

“Philomena,” Alexandre Desplat

“Saving Mr. Banks,” Thomas Newman

 

WILL WIN: “Gravity,” Stephen Price

SHOULD WIN: I have no feelings on this matter

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

“American Hustle,” production design: Judy Becker; set decoration: Heather Loeffler

“Gravity,” production design: Andy Nicholson; set decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard

“The Great Gatsby,” production design: Catherine Martin; set decoration: Beverley Dunn

“Her,” production design: K.K. Barrett; set decoration: Gene Serdena

“12 Years a Slave,” production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Alice Baker.

 

WILL WIN: “The Great Gatsby,” production design: Catherine Martin; set decoration: Beverley Dunn

SHOULD WIN: “American Hustle,” production design: Judy Becker; set decoration: Heather Loeffler

 

SOUND EDITING

“All Is Lost,” Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns

“Captain Phillips,” Oliver Tarney

“Gravity,” Glenn Freemantle

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Brent Burge and Chris Ward

“Lone Survivor,” Wylie Stateman

 

WILL WIN: “Gravity,” Glenn Freemantle

SHOULD WIN: “Gravity,” Glenn Freemantle

 

SOUND MIXING

“Captain Phillips,” Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro

“Gravity,” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson

“Inside Llewyn Davis,” Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

“Lone Survivor,” Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

 

WILL WIN: “Gravity,” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

SHOULD WIN: “Gravity,” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

“Gravity,” Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds

“Iron Man 3,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick

“The Lone Ranger,” Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier

“Star Trek Into Darkness,” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

 

WILL WIN: “Gravity,” Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould

SHOULD WIN: “Gravity,” Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould

 

As for the shorts, I have no idea.

OSCAR Liveblog

12:04 Seth McFarlane was pretty good.  Best moment? JLaw tripping and laughing about it and Ben Affleck crying.

12:02 Closing number from Chenoweth.  GAYEST OSCARS EVER.  WE ALL WIN.

11:57 17/23

Best Picture:

Will win: Argo
Should win: Django Unchained
Should have been nominated: Hunger Games

11:54 Michelle Obama is gorgeous.  Jack is gross, but, you know, adorable in his gross way.

11:53 SHELLEY!?!??!?!!!!

11:52 Meryl and DDL are like prom king and queen of this shit forever. Jack Nicholson is perennial class clown.

11:49 Jennifer Lawrence wins for Best Animated GIF!!!

Daniel Day-Lewis is funnier than the host.

11:48 16/22

Best Actor:

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Should have been nominated: Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock

11:45 Meryl Streep looked like she was scratching her butt, but she was just dealing with the fact she was stepping on her dress.

11:44 Jennifer Lawrence is so funny – You’re all standing up because I fell and that’s really embarrassing .

11:43 15/21

Best Actress:

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: JLaw (A); Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild (E)
Should have been nominated: JLaw for Hunger Games

11:41 REACHED MY TWITTER LIMIT ARGH

11:33 Ang Lee. Boo. 14/20

Best Director:

Will win: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Should win: Benh Zeitlen for Beasts of the Southern Wild (A); Michael Haneke for Amour (E)
Should have been nominated: Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty

11:31 New Grey Poupon Commercial! I was just talking the other day about how I missed Grey Poupon commercials!!

11:26 I AM SO EXCITE I DIDN’T THINK HE’D WIN but now Emmett and I are tied and I’m not gonna win. 14/19

Best Original Screenplay:

Will win: Zero Dark Thirty (A); Django Unchained (E)
Should win: Django Unchained (A); Moonrise Kingdom (E)
Should have been nominated: Looper

11:24 14/18 (A); 13/18 (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will win: Argo
Should win: Argo (A); Silver Linings Playbook (E)
Should have been nominated: Hitchcock

11:22 She was so adorable accepting and trying not to cry and mess up her makeup.  LUVHUH.  Gayest Oscars of all time?

11:16 13/17; 12/17 Congrats Adele

Best Song:

Will win: Skyfall
Should win: Ted

11:12 Wow Scarlett Johannson has a good voice!

11:10 12/16 (A); 11/16 (E)

Best Score:

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi

11:09 CATHERINE ZETA JONES DRESS IS AMAZING.  Queen Latifah wearing something from David’s Bridal.  Renee looks like she’s got stung in the face by a bee.

11:08 Tired. Is it over yet?

11:05 The problem with opening with Shirley Bassey is that you set the bar so high that even Babs doesn’t seem terribly impressive.

11:01 Nora Ephron ;_;

RAY BRADBURY ;_; ;_;

11:00 Tony Scott ;_;

10:58 George Clooney has aged so much with the beard that it makes me uncomfortable that he’s introducing the dead people.  Don’t Die George.

10:51 “Harry Potter and the Half-Drunk Princess.” – hahahahahahahaha PourMyCoffee on Twitter Love you Dan Rad and KStew

10:50 Lincoln! Dammit. 11/15 (A); 10/15 (E)

Best Production Design:

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Anna Karenina
Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises 

10:47 In defense of Anne Hathaway, who I love. http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2013/01/31/why_do_people_hate_anne_hathaway_one_reason_is_simple_sexism.html

10:45 Sandra Bullock is my soulmate

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10:39 You know, the women have really brought it with the singing tonight. Maybe Les Mis would be better if it was actually Lesbo Mis.

10:37 I love Adele’s voice so much that it almost overcomes how much I don’t really like this song.

10:34 BAM ARGO ASHLEY PULLS AHEAD OF EMMETT! 11/14 (A); 10/14 (E)

Best Editing:

Will win: Argo (A); Zero Dark Thirty (E)
Should win: Argo (A); Zero Dark Thirty (E)
Should have been nominated: Hunger Games

10:32 AWWWWWWW

BD62OERCUAAJTVg

10:28 There was an ad for Nashville with someone singing Fame and telling us to remember her name.  Unfortunately, I have no idea who she is and don’t care enough to google it.

10:23 TO THE SURPRISE OF NO ONE 10/13

Best Supporting Actress:

Will win: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Should win: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables

10:21 http://www.buzzfeed.com/hillaryreinsberg/sexist-things-at-the-oscars

10:19 There have been other ties in Oscars history, including in 1969 for best Actress. Hepburn and Streisand

10:17 WHAT A TIE.  I’m counting it but in addition to ZDT, another to Skyfall. 9/12 WHAT

Best Sound Editing:

Will win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

10:14 now 8/11 EVERYONE IS BRITISH

Best Sound Mixing:

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Les Miserables
Should have been nominated: Pitch Perfect

10:12 Love Ted.  And Marky Mark.

10:10 Star Trek people to give sciencey awards.  Makes sense.

10:03 Les Miserables after all that amazing singing just highlights how marginal it is.

10:01 Damn. Jennifer Hudson.  She’s still no Shirley Bassey.

Still not impressed with Hugh Jackman’s nasal voice.

9:55 I can’t lie: I love Catherine Zeta Jones in this role.

9:54 John Travolta clips from Hairspray! Best!

9:52 Jennifer Garner and Jessica Chastain look nervous and awkward. 7/10

Best Foreign Language Films:

Will win: Amour
Should win: Amour

9:50 People on Twitter upset about Best Doc going to the “not hard” documentary.  It’s a filmmaking award, not a cause award.

9:46 Love JLaw

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9:44 Ben Affleck is so much better with long hair and a beard.  6/9

Best Documentary Feature:

Will win: Searching for Sugarman
Should win: 5 Broken Cameras
Should have been nominated: Mea Maxima Culpa

9:39 Liam Neeson makes this sound VERY DRAMATIC.  He is going to fuck you up if you don’t like this movie.

And then some good Led Zeppelin.  HARDCORE

ARGO FUCK YOURSELF

9:37 INOCENTE!! I am wrong, but congratulations! 5/8

Best Documentary Short:

Will win: Open Heart
Should win: Kings Point

9:36 Curfew was edited on a Macbook Pro.  I COULD BE UP THERE.  If the only thing necessary is a Macbook Pro.  That’s all it needs right? Right?

9:35 5/7

Best Live Action Short:

Will win: Curfew
Should win: Curfew

9:33 Great advertising timing Kerry Washington on right after her Scandal advert!

9:28 BOW. THE. FUCK. DOWN

Diamond Jubilee - Buckingham Palace Concert

9:26 Shirley Bassey is 76.  76.

9:25 Halle Berry Looks So Good.

She also said Pussy and “Guaranteed to make your heart feet bastard.” Yes girl yes.

9:20 And the best makeup and hair goes to Les Miserables 4/6

OH YEAH PINK TIGHTS

Best Makeup:

Will win: The Hobbit
Should win: Hitchcock (A); The Hobbit (E)
Should have been nominated: Looper

9:18 The winner of MOST costume goes to Anna Karenina 5/6

Best Costumes:

Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win: Anna Karenina
Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

9:16 Honestly, I think the Jaws music is a good idea and they have to do something to control the length of the broadcast.

9:13 OMGICANTEVENWHAT

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9:11 I feel like voters don’t know the difference between vis fx and cinematography. 4/5 of predictions

Best Visual Effects:

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi
Should have been nominated: Looper

9:08 I love Robert Downey Jr So much.  And Sammy L J.  3/4 on predictions.

Best Cinematography:

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Django Unchained (A); Anna Karenina (E)
Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

9:05 K, these previews all make me want to cry.  Won’t lie. OMG Wallis is adorbs.

Lol Clooney drinking the free booze tossed to him from onstage.  That’s awesome.

9:02 KILT Y’ALL

mark-andrews-kilt

9:01 BRAVE!!!! 2/3

OMG LOVE HIS KILT

9:00 Paperman!!!! 1 for 2!

8:58 Nate Silver lied to me.  Otherwise I can’t find in substantial difference in the coverage of this event and the election.

8:53 Christoph Waltz is adorable.  And we’ve finally got some Jack Cam.

8:52:

Best Supporting Actor:

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master (A); Robert DeNiro for Silver Linings Playbook (E)

Actual Winner: CHRISTOPH WALTZ

Love him, he’s wonderful.

8:49 I’ve seen Sally Field make out with Seth McFarlane and Daniel Radcliffe tap dance with Joseph Gordon Levitt. As cringeworthy as much of this opening was, uh, that’s kind of boss.

8:47 Sally Field making out with Seth followed by a Disney cover.  Oh ABC, what are you.

8:45 DAN RAD tap dancing with JGL!?!?!?! <3

8:40 Ah brief glimpse of jokes and now too dorky to survive.

8:36 Oh good finally getting controversial!  Rihanna joke. Mel Gibson joke.  Yikes.  And by yikes, I mean YES

8:35 Seth is vaguely funny.  He looks so young compared to the amount of stuff he’s done.  He looks like he could be 24.  Mocks the directorial snub of Argo.

I think it would be really hard trying to be “normal” humor.

8:30 Seriously the coverage is so boring that I’m excited to see the commercials instead.  It’s going to start sooon

8:22 Talking to the producers.  Still don’t care.

8:06 Adele looks like a giant next to Kristen.  Clooney looks old.  Gone from salt and pepper to mostly salt.  J Garner is wearing a beautiful color with an ass ruffle running down her back.  Daniel Radcliffe is wearing a giant bowtie.  Sandra Bullock is awkward cute. This is boring.  When does the show start?  When does my pizza get here?

7:57 DAN RAD DAN RAD DAN RAD <3<3<3

7:55 My Oscars predictions in full, along with Emmett’s, are at this link.  He and I didn’t disagree on very many predictions.  In fact, in all of the categories, we came up with a different prediction only twice — Best Editing (Argo vs Zero Dark Thirty) and Original Screenplay (Zero Dark Thirty vs Django Unchained).

7:50 Here’s a picture, courtesy Tom and Lorenzo, my favorite people in the universe.

Nicole Kidman Oscars 2013

7:40 OMG Nicole Kidman looks amazing.  And I never like Nicole Kidman!  Yes, I’ve given in and am watching the pre-show.  Charlize Theron is a giant.  Kristin Chenoweth is teeny.  I almost stepped on her once at a Starbucks and thought she was a little kid and then I was too embarrassed to also say I loved her voice, so I just… got out of her way.

Great stories like that and more on Ashley Oscar Liveblog 2013!!

Oscar Predictions for Every Category (slightly OCD)

83rd Academy Awards¨ Press Kit ImagesEmmett and I put together a predictions list for the Oscars that I am going to share with you.  Tonight, I’ll be live blogging the event.  This is not because I think the Oscars are particularly right in their judgments, but more that I just love the Oscars.

Best Picture:

Will win: Argo
Should win: Django Unchained
Should have been nominated: Hunger Games

Best Director:

Will win: Steve Spielberg for Lincoln
Should win: Benh Zeitlen for Beasts of the Southern Wild (A); Michael Haneke for Amour (E)
Should have been nominated: Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor:

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Should have been nominated: Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock

Best Actress:

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: JLaw (A); Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild (E)
Should have been nominated: JLaw for Hunger Games

Best Supporting Actor:

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master (A); Robert DeNiro for Silver Linings Playbook (E)

Best Supporting Actress:

Will win: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Should win: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables

Best Original Screenplay:

Will win: Zero Dark Thirty (A); Django Unchained (E)
Should win: Django Unchained (A); Moonrise Kingdom (E)
Should have been nominated: Looper

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will win: Argo
Should win: Argo (A); Silver Linings Playbook (E)
Should have been nominated: Hitchcock

Best Animated Feature:

Will win: Brave
Should win: Brave

Best Foreign Language Films:

Will win: Amour
Should win: Amour

Best Documentary Feature:

Will win: Searching for Sugarman
Should win: 5 Broken Cameras
Should have been nominated: Mea Maxima Culpa

Best Score:

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi

Best Song:

Will win: Skyfall
Should win: Ted

Best Sound Editing:

Will win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing:

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Les Miserables
Should have been nominated: Pitch Perfect

Best Production Design:

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Anna Karenina
Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

Best Cinematography:

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Django Unchained (A); Anna Karenina (E)
Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

Best Editing:

Will win: Argo (A); Zero Dark Thirty (E)
Should win: Argo (A); Zero Dark Thirty (E)
Should have been nominated: Hunger Games

Best Visual Effects:

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi
Should have been nominated: Looper

Best Makeup:

Will win: The Hobbit
Should win: Hitchcock (A); The Hobbit (E)
Should have been nominated: Looper

Best Costumes:

Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win: Anna Karenina
Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

Best Animated Short:

PAPERMAN WILL AND SHOULD WIN ALL OF THE THINGS <3<3<3

Best Live Action Short:

Will win: Curfew
Should win: Curfew

Best Documentary Short:

Will win: Open Heart
Should win: Kings Point

Oscar Noms 2012 — Analysis Forthcoming

SHOCK OF THE DAY: No Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director

Lead Actress: Naomi Watts, Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhane Wallis

Lead Actor: Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington

Best Picture: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Silver Linings, Zero Dark 30, Lincoln, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Amour, Django, Argo

Best Director: David O. Russell, Ang Lee, Steven Spielberg, Michael Haneke, Benh Zeitlin

Adapted Screenplay: Beasts, Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings, Life of Pi

Original Screenplay: Flight, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Amour, Moonrise Kingdom

Best Foreign Film: Amour, No, War Witch, A Royal Affair, Kon-Tiki

Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt, Amy Adams, Sally Field, Jackie Weaver, Anne Hathaway

Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robert De Niro, Alan Arkin, Tommy Lee Jones

Social Axcess

So, biggish news, I’m working as a staff writer at social axcess and writing about social media.  Which is just about as meta as it gets.  I don’t know that there’s much that isn’t post modern about blogging, but there you have it.

My first post went up and there’s even a little picture and bio of me.  Ashley F. Miller, professional writer and general knower of things!

Go read about @TheAcademy’s social media campaign.

Academy Award Noms: Lee Smith Snubbed

Last year I listed who I thought was going to win, but this year I think I’m going to list who I want to win.

Let me start with something that you’ll find running through all this commentary, Lee Smith edited the most technically impressive film of the year, Inception. You’ll find that he did not even get nominated for it. This is a travesty. I will probably use all caps and exclamation points to extremes, my apologies.

Best Picture:
I know a lot of people are feeling Inception, but I didn’t actually like that movie, and I did love The King’s Speech, so I’m choosing that one. I think The Social Network is the other big contender, and I’d be happy for that to win as well. I don’t think that there’s a bad film on the list, which makes it a much more successful one than last year. I also like the 10 noms — I think I’m the only one.

Best Leading Actor:
I was torn on this, but I actually think that Jesse Eisenberg gave the most impressive performance here. I love Colin Firth, but I wasn’t terribly impressed by his acting in the movie, not nearly as much as I was with Guy Pearce and Geoffrey Rush. Again, though, they all gave great performances and there’s not a one that I’d be sad to walk away with the gold.

Supporting Actor:
I am biased, I will always choose Geoffrey Rush if he is named, and so he is. I want him to win. I’ve heard Christian Bale is really amazing, but as I haven’t seen it I can’t say.

Best Leading Actress:
I confess that I am not really drawn to any of these as a pick. I’m going to go with Natalie Portman, but you could sell me on any of them. Maybe Jennifer Lawrence?

Supporting Actress:
I almost want Helena Bonham Carter to win just because it would prove to her that she is allowed to be in movies where she doesn’t play a totally over the top crazy person. I think that Hailee Steinfeld is also quite deserving, although it’s kind of BS that she was nominated as a supporting actress despite being, you know, the main character of the whole damn movie.

Best animated feature:
Um… Where are Tangled and Despicable Me? Toy Story 3 is going to win, but I quite liked How to Train Your Dragon.

Art Direction:
This is really tough, and I know it tends to go to either the most period or most extravagant choice, but I think Inception was really impressive on the art direction side of things. In terms of craft, I’ve never seen a better executed film.

Cinematography:
Inception. I can’t even imagine the others would compete.

Costume Design:
I am actually fairly indifferent here. I know Ms. Atwood always wins, but I wasn’t that impressed with the costumes in Alice. They were fine, mind you. Same with The King’s Speech. I cannot pick a favorite.

Directing:
The Social Network. I am biased in this case by an article I read about David Fincher written by Aaron Sorkin. I have a writer’s crush on Aaron Sorkin and he loved working with Fincher, so I cannot help but vicariously love as well.

Documentary Feature:
We’re venturing into territory where I’m choosing based as much on hearsay as actual knowledge, but I’m going to choose Exit through the Gift Shop because I like Banksy.

Documentary Short:
No Idea.

Film Editing:
WHAAAAAAAAAT?!?!?!! How is Inception not on this list?!!??!! I didn’t even like the movie and I can say that it is some of the best editing I’ve ever seen. WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT?! They all should lose. *deep breath* I guess The Social Network. Whatever, I don’t care, this is an offense against man and God.

Foreign Language:
Biutiful

Makeup:
Rick Baker

Original Score:
Inception, though I don’t feel strongly about this. Unlike the EDITING!

Original Song:
We Belong Together from Toy Story 3.

Animated Short:
No Idea, I love them though, so I can’t wait to get to see them.

Live Action Short:
No Idea

Sound Editing:
Inception. WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAVE WON EDITING

Sound Mixing:
Inception.

Visual Effects:
Inception

Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network, no question. It should win twice.

Original Screenplay:
Not Inception. Anything but Inception. Maybe The King’s Speech.

Academy Awards Predictions: First Female Best Director?!

I think that Avatar’s going to win an awful lot.  Basically it’s going to win unless there’s a really compelling reason to give it to someone else.  That being said, as a technical achievement, the film is a marvel, and I think it winning the technical categories is completely called for.  And of course, most of the wins in the technical categories aren’t really for “best” so much as they are for “most”.  “Most Cinematography” and “Most Editing”.

The only thing I really want to happen is that I really want Kathryn Bigelow to win best director.  She’s only the fourth female nominee in the category.  My preference for Up in a lot of places is just that I think that animated films deserve to be more recognized than they are.  I don’t think Up is nearly as amazing as Wall-E was, but I’m going to pull for animation.  Especially as there isn’t anything here I really care that much about.

Who I want to win in italics, who I think will win in bold.  No italics where I have no preference, or not enough knowledge.

Actor in a Leading Role
• Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
• George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
• Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
• Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Actor in a Supporting Role
• Matt Damon in “Invictus”
• Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
• Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
• Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
• Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

Actress in a Leading Role
• Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
• Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
• Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
• Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
• Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

Actress in a Supporting Role
• Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
• Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
• Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
• Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Animated Feature Film
• “Coraline” Henry Selick
• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Wes Anderson
• “The Princess and the Frog” John Musker and Ron Clements
• “The Secret of Kells” Tomm Moore
• “Up” Pete Docter

Art Direction
• “Avatar” Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
• “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
• “Nine” Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
• “Sherlock Holmes” Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• “The Young Victoria” Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

Cinematography
• “Avatar” Mauro Fiore
• “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” Bruno Delbonnel
• “The Hurt Locker” Barry Ackroyd
• “Inglourious Basterds” Robert Richardson
• “The White Ribbon” Christian Berger

Costume Design
• “Bright Star” Janet Patterson
• “Coco before Chanel” Catherine Leterrier
• “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Monique Prudhomme
• “Nine” Colleen Atwood
• “The Young Victoria” Sandy Powell

Directing
• “Avatar” James Cameron
• “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
• “Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
• “Up in the Air” Jason Reitman

Documentary (Feature)
• “Burma VJ” Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
• “The Cove” Nominees to be determined
• “Food, Inc.” Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
• “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
• “Which Way Home” Rebecca Cammisa

Documentary (Short Subject)
• “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
• “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
• “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
• “Music by Prudence” Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
• “Rabbit à la Berlin” Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

Film Editing
• “Avatar” Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
• “District 9” Julian Clarke
• “The Hurt Locker” Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
• “Inglourious Basterds” Sally Menke
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Joe Klotz

Foreign Language Film
• “Ajami” Israel
• “El Secreto de Sus Ojos” Argentina
• “The Milk of Sorrow” Peru
• “Un Prophète” France
• “The White Ribbon” Germany

Makeup
• “Il Divo” Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
• “Star Trek” Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
• “The Young Victoria” Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

Music (Original Score)
• “Avatar” James Horner
• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Alexandre Desplat
• “The Hurt Locker” Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
• “Sherlock Holmes” Hans Zimmer
• “Up” Michael Giacchino

Music (Original Song)
• “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
• “Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
• “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Best Picture
• “Avatar” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• “The Blind Side” Nominees to be determined
• “District 9” Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
• “An Education” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
• “The Hurt Locker” Nominees to be determined
• “Inglourious Basterds” Lawrence Bender, Producer
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
• “A Serious Man” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
• “Up” Jonas Rivera, Producer
• “Up in the Air” Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Short Film (Animated)
• “French Roast” Fabrice O. Joubert
• “Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
• “The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” Javier Recio Gracia
• “Logorama” Nicolas Schmerkin
• “A Matter of Loaf and Death” Nick Park

Short Film (Live Action)
• “The Door” Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
• “Instead of Abracadabra” Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
• “Kavi” Gregg Helvey
• “Miracle Fish” Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
• “The New Tenants” Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

Sound Editing
• “Avatar” Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
• “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson
• “Inglourious Basterds” Wylie Stateman
• “Star Trek” Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
• “Up” Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

Sound Mixing
• “Avatar” Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
• “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
• “Inglourious Basterds” Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
• “Star Trek” Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
• “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

Visual Effects
• “Avatar” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
• “District 9” Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
• “Star Trek” Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
• “District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
• “An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
• “In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
• “Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Writing (Original Screenplay)
• “The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
• “Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
• “The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
• “A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy